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The Jarrow-Turnbull credit risk model was published by Robert A. Jarrow of Kamakura Corporation and Cornell University and Stuart Turnbull, currently at the University of Houston, in March, 1995. The article "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," appeared in the Journal of Finance, volume 50. Many experts in financial theory label the Jarrow Turnbull model as the first "reduced form" credit model. Reduced form models are an approach to credit risk modeling that contrasts sharply with the "structural credit models" developed by Robert C. Merton in the article “On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates,” Journal of Finance 29, 1974, pp. 449-470. The structural or "Merton" credit models are single period models which derive the default probability from the random variation in the unobservable value of the firm's assets. Two years after the development of the structural credit model, Robert Merton published “Option Pricing When Underlying Stock Returns are Discontinuous,” Journal of Financial Economics, 3, January-March, 1976, pp. 125-44. In this publication, he modeled bankruptcy as a continuous probability of default. Upon the random occurrence of default, the stock price of the defaulting company is assumed to go to zero. Merton derived the value of options for a company that can default. This was in fact the first "reduced form" model where bankruptcy is modeled as a statistical process, rather than as a micoreconomic model of the firm's capital structure.
